Depopulation stats spark fury over cuts

As working age population falls, a report to the Western Isles NHS Board showed that the number of births in the islands last year was the lowest since records began while the proportion of over-65s has risen by 30 per cent since 2008.

Bed blocking has risen by 37 per cent in the first nine months of this fiscal year due to difficulties in recruiting staff from a shrinking pool of potential employees.

Difficulties in staff recruitment and retention to provide vital services were linked directly in the Health Board report to the shortage of available housing and key council services including childcare.

Labour candidate Donald Mackinnon laid the crisis at the door of “a shocking cumulative cut to Comhairle nan Eilean Siar’s core funding of £280 million since 2013-14”.

In the current year, the Comhairle would have £23 million more to spend on services if Scottish Government support had remained static. Instead, it is faced with a further £4.1 million of cuts.

In response, the sitting MSP, Alasdair Allan, said that the Scottish Government is not “solely responsible” for the funding settlement and that any extra money would have to “be taken out of other services, like health”.

However, he accepted that “the current funding formula disadvantages island authorities”.

Mr Mackinnon said that at this week’s hustings meetings in Borve and Shawbost, “population decline was the key underlying issue and there were serious concerns about the impact of brutal cuts to council funding”.

He said that the Comhairle, with a 17 per cent real terms cut, has been “by far the worst treated local authority in Scotland”, one of only five which saw any cut over the period and the only one with a double digit decrease”.

Mr MacKinnon said: “This shocking state of affairs which has seen the Comhairle become the worst treated of any local authority in Scotland has happened on Alasdair Allan’s watch with his own party in government.

“It beggars belief that as our MSP for the last two decades he has not raised his voice on this matter. Instead, he has let this vicious cycle of cuts and population decline continue unchallenged”.

In response, Mr Allan said: “The Comhairle provides vital services, and the SNP Government has sought to recognise that, though I accept that local authorities have often faced challenging financial circumstances in recent years.

“Comhairle nan Eilean Siar’s funding is not set solely by the Scottish Government, but by a formula agreed by CoSLA, who represent Scottish local authorities. The current CoSLA funding formula disadvantages island authorities, and I have put on record my call for the body to change this.

“Unless other political parties are also prepared to challenge CoSLA on that, they are merely arguing for money to be taken out of other services, like health, from Scotland’s fixed budget. Ultimately, Scotland should have control over all its resources and be able to set budgets according to its own needs, rather than be tied to budget decisions at a UK level.”

While the Scottish Government and CoSLA negotiate the distribution of funding support among councils within the overall sum allocated, the Government’s own guidance makes clear that the ultimate decisions rest with Ministers.

It states: “The client-group approach is an objective method used to estimate, within a controlled total, the relative allocation to local authorities.

"It is designed to take into account variations in the demand for services and the costs of providing them to a similar standard and with a similar degree of efficiency

“All indicators must be factors which plausibly affect either the demand for services or the unit cost of meeting that demand. They were selected after thorough discussions with local authorities and other service specialists”.

The case consistently made by Comhairle nan Eilean Siar has been that, rather than being punished by the formula, depopulation and falling school rolls – two of the key measures – should be factored in as reasons for increased support, to counter the trends which drive depopulation.

Mr Mackinnon commented: “Nobody who knows anything about island circumstances would dispute these are ‘plausible’ factors. Yet they are used against us, rather than in our favour.

“It is absolutely clear that the Western Isles stands out as an anomaly. If the political will exists, it is a lot easier to address an anomaly, with very little impact on the overall settlement”.

Meanwhile, Scottish Government guidance reveals that the case for an increase in the longstanding Special Islands Needs Allowance has also been rejected although “SINA has been decreasing in both cash and real terms since 2008-09”

The Scottish Government notes to the local authority settlement states: “A review was carried out in 2024-25 to determine if there were revisions needed to the SINA in recognition of the additional cost of providing services on islands.

"There was no compelling evidence to suggest a change to the current SINA methodology was required”.

Demographic picture is getting even bleaker

​The bleakest picture yet of demographic trends will be presented this week to the Western Isles NHS Board with dire warnings of implications for services.

​Last year saw the lowest number of births recorded in the Western Isles since records began – just 167. This was fewer than half the number of deaths in the same period.

Within the UK, the ratio of births to deaths has just dropped below parity while in Scotland, it is at 0.73. However, the Western Isles figure last year was 0.47.

A report by finance director Debbie Bozkurt on “population decline and its effects on recruitment” said that “without positive net inward migration”, this is “unsustainable”.

However, the problem is compounded by the fact that “inward migration is predominantly the over 65s or the young retirals” rather than an active working age population, piling additional costs on health provision.

“In 18 years”, says the report, “the whole of the islands 65+ population has increased by 30 per cent in numbers”.

Recruitment and retention of staff, it continues, is hampered by factors like the shortage of available housing, “lack of childcare for the under 3s, lack of after school clubs and school holiday facilities”.

Difficulty in recruiting social care staff has contributed to a £3 million cost in delayed discharges. The report states: “For the first nine months of 2025/26 there has been a 37 per cent increase in delayed discharges from 24/25 with an average of 37 per cent of acute beds being delayed.

“Difficulty in recruiting to posts in Social Care due to poor workforce demographics is resulting in extremely high levels of delayed discharges, requiring the staffing of contingency beds and relative other costs”.